[Vortrag Regensburg] Socio-economic Transitions

23.06.2015 (16:00 - 17:30)

Am Dienstag, den 23.06.2014 spricht in der Seminarreihe Ökonomie am Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (IOS) in Regensburg Erich Gundlach (GIGA und Universität Hamburg) zum Thema "Socio-economic Transitions - A Pattern Across Countries and Over Time". Der Vortrag findet im statt im IOS, Landshuter Straße 4, Raum 109.


Long-run socioeconomic transitions can be observed across countries and over time. For instance, high income countries have less agriculture, older populations, more urbanization, and more democracy than low income countries. The same stylized pattern holds within countries for transitions over time from a traditional to a modern society. Instrumental variables estimation is used to control for omitted variables and reverse causality. Various panel estimators are used to test the robustness of the estimated long-run income effects. For most transitions, the long-run income effects are remarkably similar across countries and over time. Conflicting and counter-intuitive estimates for the democratic transition, as reported in the recent literature, can be shown to be based on an inappropriate empirical model.